Smartphone ownership: Japan 4%, US 35%,Taiwan 50% says Ma II

This is a follow-up of my post yesterday
Smartphone ownership: Japan 4%, US 35%,
Taiwan 50% says Ma [1]

First, let me summarize three pieces of data from [1] and add a new piece of data from Tae Matsumoto to show that there is a phenomenal surge of smartphone ownership in Japan:

1.  Global Smartphone Penetration by Region 2009-2014  (2010-06-20) predicted a 5% Japanese smartphone ownership in 2011.
2. Tae Matsumoto (松本多恵) of Nara Women's University (奈良女子大學) in a survey of 125 students in the first two months of 2011, found only five owning smartphones.  This suggests a ownership rate of 4%, similar to the above forecast.
3. iPhone drives Japan smartphone penetration to over 20% (2010-09-09) observed that
   smartphone penetration jumped to 22.6% in July from 12% a year ago, according to market research company BCN.
4. Tae Matsumoto did another survey in Nara Women's University on 2011-04-30 with 300 students participating, and found the ownership number jumped from the 4% of two months ago to 13%.

Peter Ro wrote

台灣人很愛使用智慧型手機
Taiwanese love to use smartphones

presumably responding to the 30% IDC number or the 50% Ma Ying-Jeou number for Taiwan in my previous post.

To this, I have two comments:

1. Ma stated  on 2011-02-10, without justification, that the smartphone penetration rate in Taiwan was expected to reach nearly 50% this year.  Less than a month ago, in  Taiwan smartphone penetration set to hit record high: IDC, an IDC senior analyst said
   

   Smartphone shipments in Taiwan, which accounted for between 21 percent and 22 percent of total mobile phone shipments last year, will increase to between 29 percent and 30 percent this year

   That implied that smartphone ownership is less than 30%.  Ma should tell us why his number 50% is so at odds with IDC's number, and completely out of line with any other prevailing forecasts. 
2. All the numbers we quoted are about smartphone ownership and market penetration, not about usage. Ownership and market penetration are different from usage.  For example, many Taiwanese own iPhones, but they use them as expensive cell phones to feel good, to show off, or to make a statement about their social status.  Few understands how a smartphone differs from dumb phones and few realizes that a smartphone is a powerful computer.  It is a rare Taiwanese smartphone owner who knows how to tether or even what it means.  I have even helped many to turn on their GPS.   See Two things to do in 2011: Use smartphone and dump Microsoft for more.  Taiwanese leave their smartphones' tremendous power untapped just as they leave their computers' tremendous power untapped.  This is as if I own the empire state building, but decide to use just one room on the first floor, and nowhere else.  Why?  Because I don't want to learn to use other rooms.

Smartphone ownership: Japan 4%, US 35%,Taiwan 50% says Ma

I saw a very surprising 2011 survey result from Ms Tae Matsumoto of Nara Women's University (奈良女子大學), as follows:


Thus, less than four out of 100 (or one out of twenty five) Nara Women's University students have smartphones.  Can the number be this low in a Japan university?

This 4% is in line with Global Smartphone Penetration by Region 2009-2014, but is a far cry from the 23% given in iPhone drives Japan smartphone penetration to over 20%.
 
For US numbers, see Pew research smartphone ownership.  They are 35% overall and 52% for young adults:

Smartphone penetration has reached more than half (52%) of 18-to-29-year-old US adults, according to a July 2011 study from the Pew Research Center Internet & American Life Project. The study also reveals that 45% of 30-to-49-year-olds own smartphones, and this figure then drops by almost 50% to 24% among 50-to-64-year-olds. Overall, 35% of US adults own smartphones.

The US numbers pale when compared to Taiwan's, according to president Ma Ying-Jeou:

"The smartphone penetration rate in Taiwan is expected to reach nearly 50% this year based on a similar figure in Hong Kong, where smartphones have become very popular," Ma told reporters at a press conference.

For people unfamiliar with Ma Yin-Jeou, he is a man constantly making unsubstantiated statements such as this, and making promises he could not keep (think 6-3-3). 

In Taiwan smartphone penetration set to hit record high: IDC, we read

Smartphone shipments in Taiwan, which accounted for between 21 percent and 22 percent of total mobile phone shipments last year, will increase to between 29 percent and 30 percent this year, higher than the global average of 26 percent, IDC senior analyst Joey Yen (嚴蘭欣) told reporters at a news conference.